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Forecasters in Spain are predicting an Indian summer, or Veranillo de San Miguel

as it’s commonly known here, as we approach the weekend. After a few relatively nippy days, especially in the early mornings, temperatures are set to rise across the board.

 

However, even as the mercury inches up, a storm appears to be winging its way towards Spain. This is the tail-end of hurricane Gabrielle. While its exact path is unclear, it’s expected to make landfall in mainland Spain on Sunday in the form of storms.

 

Hurricane Gabrielle, which remains active in the North Atlantic, is beginning to weaken as we speak . It will continue moving toward the Azores Islands, where it will arrive between Thursday and Friday, and then move eastward. There is now a clear consensus that Hurricane Gabrielle will reach the Spanish peninsula this weekend.

 

 

In the meantime though, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) expects fine weather to build steadily from Thursday September 25, with mornings still on the chilly side but afternoons warming up nicely.

 

By Friday September 26, most of the country will feel the effects of the so-called Indian summer, with highs returning to seasonal or even above-average levels.

 

The warmth will be most noticeable across the south and southeast. The Guadalquivir Valley is expected to see highs of 32 to 33ºC in Córdoba and Sevilla, with similar figures possible in Murcia.

 

Inland Andalucia, Extremadura and the southern Valencian Community will also bask in highs above 30ºC, while the Tagus and Guadiana valleys could edge close to that mark.

 

 

Further north, maximums will sit between 25 and 29ºC. Along the Mediterranean coast and in the Balearic Islands, the mercury will reach between 25 and 28ºC, and the Canary Islands will hold steady in the upper 20s.

 

Even though nights will remain cool in many inland areas, with lows dipping below 10ºC in some northern regions, the overall feel will be much milder than earlier this week.

 

Saturday September 27 will also be stable, sunny and warm across most of the country, with the week’s highest temperatures in many areas (30ºC+ in the south, high 20s in central Spain). The storm will still be over the Atlantic, so Saturday should feel like the peak of the Indian summer.

 

 

This stretch of settled weather will be short-lived, however, as attention turns to the Atlantic. Hurricane Gabrielle, currently a Category 3 system with sustained winds of around 185 km/h, is beginning to lose steam as it tracks towards the Azores. By the time it nears mainland Spain this weekend, Gabrielle will no longer be a hurricane but rather a conventional storm system, sometimes called an extratropical or subtropical low.

 

Even so, forecasters agree it will still have enough punch to affect much of the country on Sunday September 28. The exact impact is harder to pin down, as different models show different scenarios.

One possibility is that the remnants of Gabrielle will skirt the southwest, brushing Portugal and parts of Andalucia with rain and gusty winds while gradually fading.

 

 

Another outcome would see the storm track further inland across Spain, where it could remain more active and trigger showers and blustery conditions across a wider area.

 

Join our Spain Weather Watch Facebook group for regular updates

 

Images: Aemet